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Download PDF , by Richard Harris
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, by Richard Harris
Download PDF , by Richard Harris
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Product details
File Size: 1776 KB
Print Length: 279 pages
Publisher: Basic Books; 1 edition (April 4, 2017)
Publication Date: April 4, 2017
Sold by: Hachette Book Group
Language: English
ASIN: B01K3WN72C
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(Quick review: Many biomedical scientists are already aware of the content of this book, but for academics in other fields, industry professionals, doctors, or people who plan to donate money to biomedical research, I highly recommend it.)Biomedical science is falling sway to the law of diminishing returns. These are no longer the days when new cures pop up out of nowhere during quick tests. Complex new technologies have opened up millions of new possibilities for discovering agents of disease or possible treatments, while creating countless new opportunities for failure in the process. In the 21st century, it is exponentially harder to find new drugs than it was in the 20th, and increasingly, young researchers around the world are feeling the grind.Luckily, science has all the tools of the Enlightenment at its disposal to expose mistaken research and weed out bad methods. There are regular conferences, internal reviews, retractions, and impeccable science journalism at the journals Nature and Science especially. The more exuberant apologists for science will tell us that unlike religious prophecy, science gains from failed predictions. So, is there really a problem?Richard Harris, NPR science reporter, argues in this book that yes, diminishing returns is creating real problems for science. This book reads like a long NPR story, so it would probably make a great audiobook, except that I wouldn't recommend listening to it in the car: some of Harris's findings would probably make you slam on the brakes. Despite the best intentions of hundreds of whistleblowers, and an institutional recognition that things need to change, much of the medical research funded by tax money and grieving parents is… well… a word that Harris refuses to put down on print.On a structural level, the stakes are very high. A researcher might spend a decade working based on false assumptions, or become widely known in his field for a lauded finding that might not be exactly true. And there is no prize for discovering that a result is false. Researchers may take months or years failing to reproduce a result, with the only reward being the ability to grumble about it at next year’s conference. Scientists are human and there are always little problems at the interpersonal level, but when those problems are well-known to everyone and seem unavoidable, they become part of the structure of science itself.The result is that there are a number of sacred cows that regularly spawn bad science, but which both academics and publishers have refused to abandon, resulting in the 70-90% rate of inaccuracy among published studies. The inexcusable becomes normal: there’s the overconfidence in mouse studies. There’s the sloppy use of cell lines, which is no longer tolerated in industry studies. There’s the infamous “p = 0.05†standard, which is well known by biostatisticians to be too loose, but which would slow biomedical publication to a near halt if it were abandoned. Researchers are evaluated on quantity of publications, rather than quality, during job interviews. Data sharing in biomedical science lags far behind other fields, due to intense competition for funding. Worst of all, research universities do not offer classes in methodology where problems like these might be discussed. Researchers trying to evaluate recent literature and get new results are forced to learn “on their feet,†either in the laboratory or at conferences.This is now recognized as a crisis throughout the field. In 2015 a discussion was opened as to how things might be improved. Unfortunately, besides closer attention to detail at the top journals, there is no consensus about what can be done. The hypercompetitive environment that promotes false results and sloppy standards relies on the same psychological drive that causes good researchers to seek out hidden methodological problems. The most frightening question is, in the long run, can these problems actually be fixed? At a structural level, the law of diminishing returns (called Eroom’s Law in the book) means that research is going to get more and more expensive — the possibilities may still be exciting, but institutions are going to pour more and more cash to complete any given study, and the desire for positive results is going to be more, not less. The import of this is that all of us, doctors and laypeople alike, will need to be more and more skeptical of research findings as time goes on.Although biomedical researchers may want to insist that this book is a compilation of challenges rather than fatal flaws, and that their research continues to save lives, any academic or journalist with a serious interest in the truth needs to read it, in order to understand how biological research in general operates today. When I, a humanities grad student, explained to my biomedical researcher friend the type of procedure that has been proposed by my colleagues for applying “cognitive science†to artistic behavior, he laughed out loud. When you know how modern science really works, and the vast number of pitfalls that might be hiding between the lines of any individual paper, the uses to which non-experts put your work can sound naive or even absurd. Harris is doing his duty as a journalist to put that variety of scientific intuition down in print.Related books:- Unhinged: The Trouble with Psychiatry - A Doctor's Revelations about a Profession in Crisis- The Trouble With Physics: The Rise of String Theory, The Fall of a Science, and What Comes Next
Basic Books knocked it out of the park with this book.Every point that was taken up in the intro was dealt with in a separate chapter (in order) with not too many words and with interesting prose. The whole book can be read in a couple of afternoons of quiet time.There are 10 chapters and 236 pages of prose. 23.6 pages per chapter (on average) and just enough for the reader to take them one bit at a time.The footnotes were not as thorough as they might have been. For instance, I might have wanted to look up the origin of the authors assertion that "The reality for most cancer drugs is that most patients don't respond." There was a citation, but when I tracked it down, it did not point back to that topic.The topics are:1. Someone chose a sample of 53 studies and found out that only 6 of them could be reproduced.2. A sampling of some of the reasons/ ways in which research goes wrong. (To be expanded later.)3. Poor experimental design and problems in the study of Lou Gehrig's disease (ALS).4. Mice are not humans and a person can draw the wrong conclusions from pretending that they are (for a variety of reasons).5. Papers are often written up testing misidentified cancer cells/ antibodies. (7000 studies. p. 96).6. i. 70% of substandard genomics research comes from China. ii. 98.8% of genomics research does not stand the test of time (i.e. spurious correlations). iii. Most Ph.D. level scientists (in the biological sciences) don't have a good grasp of the epistemic foundations of experimental design or statistics.7. Most papers don't contain enough detail (anywhere) for someone to repeat the experiment. (This is one of the definitions of a non-reproducible paper). Sharing too much data can get you "scooped."8. There is a huge oversupply of scientists and that creates some misaligned incentives. Only 21% of them will find tenure track jobs. With 400 applications for one job a common phenomenon, the most important thing is to publish *something* (not necessarily something accurate). China shows up again at the forefront of academic fraud (p. 178).9. Even when we want to evaluate the usefulness of medicines, there are problems with demonstrating clear statistical relationships (in the context of tissue collection/ drug discovery/ biomarker validation).10. Sketches of ideas to make fundamental change.There are lots of thought questions that come up:1. What does it mean to talk about increased funding for research? If most papers don't tell anything that is true or reproducible, then more money will only make more papers that will not stand the test of time.2. Is there really a shortage of scientists? (We keep hearing that every 15 minutes on the news.) One factor for the publish-perish mentality is that people are trying to get a very few academic jobs. And part of these methodological difficulties is because of the rush to publish.3. How much of this is a problem outside of the biomedical field? This book only dealt with one fraction of human concern. Admittedly, it is a large fraction.4. The journey of 1000 miles starts with the first step. None of us who are alive to read this book today are going to see any significant change in the direction suggested by this book. There are just too many people involved to make such a change and too few policy makers who have given any thought to this. How long have we known that there are too many PhDs in History or Poly Sci? And yet they are still overproduced and underemployed year after year. How long have we known that the tenure system is a bad idea? And yet it goes on decade after decade. I'm not holding my breath.Verdict: Worth the time. Worth the money.
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